Record Low Water on the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers
The Mississippi River provides a vital link for freight movement in the United States. In 2022, the Mississippi River carried more than half of the 164.1 million tons that moved between the 12 [1] states touching the Upper Mississippi System and Louisiana, as shown in the figure below. The percentage of freight tonnage carried by the River to Louisiana is much higher for some states than others: nearly 57 percent for Illinois, 8.6 percent for Missouri, and 10.7 percent for Kentucky. [2] In 2022 and 2023 to date, that flow of freight has been hampered by low water levels on the Lower Mississippi River. Barges must carry less cargo to reduce their drafts and barge tows must be reduced in number and length. At times, some parts of the waterway system were not navigable by barges.
Of the 12 states, as shown in the figure below, Illinois shipped the most freight to Louisiana in total (54 million tons) and the most by water (45 million tons) in 2022. Cereal grain accounted for 45 percent of the total tonnage between Illinois and Louisiana, and other agricultural products accounted for 28 percent. The river carried 97 percent of the cereal grain between Illinois and Louisiana, compared to 3 percent by rail, and it carried 83 percent of “other agricultural products” [4] between those two states, compared to 15 percent by rail and 2 percent by truck. [5]
The Mississippi Waterway consists of various rivers that connect a little to the North of St Louis, Mo. These rivers are connected by a series of locks that allow barges and other river-going vessels to navigate past the different depths of the rivers. The southernmost lock is Lock 27 near St Louis. The depth of the water is measured in the upstream part of a lock and in the downstream part referred to as the pool. The data shown in Figure 3-9 show the average pool levels for Lock 27 from 2010 to 2023. The chart shows that the 2019 flood broke several max records and that since 2022, low records were consistently broken. The ability to move freight on the Mississippi River depends on water levels, whether too much due to flooding or too little due to drought. Low water also restricts the loads each barge can carry, and the narrower channel restricts the number of barges in a single tow. [7]
Many major barge commodities such as coal, chemicals, and petroleum move at similar volumes year-round. Grain and other farm products, however, are seasonal. In 2023, downbound (southbound) grain shipments from the Upper Mississippi through Lock 27 were even lower than the 2022 volumes, as shown in the figure below. [8]
Unfortunately, the low water has again coincided with the peak shipping season for U.S. corn and soybeans, our nation’s largest export crops. The October downbound grain and agriculture product shipments on the Lower Mississippi below Lock and Dam 27 [10] were predominately soybeans and corn as shown in the figure below, leaving those major export commodities most vulnerable to the Lower River disruption.
The implications are apparent in barge shipping rates. By early September 2022, barge rates were at record highs. Downbound grain rates on the Mississippi in October 2022 rose to more than double the 2021 peak and remained very high in early November of that year, as shown in the figure below. However, the winter of 2023 saw very low barge rates, which have only just ticked up in October 2023 and which were far lower than October 2022 rates. Low rates can be reflective of low demand – with interruptions in service and inability to move the same tonnage as cost effectively, shippers may be moving to other modes.
Footnotes
[1] These include Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri along the Mississippi north of its confluence with the Ohio River; Kansas and Nebraska along the navigable portion of the Missouri River; and Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania along the Ohio River.
[2] U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Freight Analysis Framework (FAF, version 5.4), available at Freight Analysis Framework (bts.gov) as of November 2023.
[3] U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Freight Analysis Framework (FAF, version 5.4), available at Freight Analysis Framework (bts.gov) as of November 2023.
[4] The category of “other agricultural products” excludes cereal grains, live animals and seafood, milled grain, and foodstuffs.
[5] U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Freight Analysis Framework (FAF, version 5.4), available at Freight Analysis Framework (bts.gov) as of November 2023.
[6] U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Freight Analysis Framework (FAF, version 5.4), available at Freight Analysis Framework (bts.gov) as of November 2023.
[7] U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Low Water on the Mississippi Slows Critical Freight Flows, available at Low Water on the Mississippi Slows Critical Freight Flows (bts.gov) as of November 2022.
[8] U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, analysis based upon Downbound Grain Barge Rates (12/05/23), available at Latest Supply Chain Indicators (bts.gov) as of December 2023.
[9] U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, analysis based upon U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Market Service, Downbound Barge Grain Movements, available at Downbound Barge Grain Movements (usda.gov) as of December 2023.
[10] Lock and Dam 27 are located om the Mississippi River near Granite City, IL.
[11] U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, analysis based upon U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Market Service, Downbound Barge Grain Movements, available at Downbound Barge Grain Movements (usda.gov) as of November 2023.
[12] U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, analysis based upon Downbound Grain Barge Rates (12/05/23), available at Latest Supply Chain Indicators (bts.gov) as of December 2024.